Tdlr: On Black ops 1, 2, and 3 almost every single weapon in the box has identical odds of appearing regardless of weapon class/wonder weapon status. To find the odds, count the number of weapons in the box on a given map, remove weapons you are currently holding, remove player exclusive weapons (wonder weapons, crossbow, ballistic knife, and dolls on cotd only), and the odds are 1 divided by that number.
The exceptions are as follows:
The Wunderwaffe (Bo1 only) has a 15% chance of appearing anytime from round 5-10, then a 20% chance of appearing after round 10. This makes the wunderwaffe the most common weapon in the box (surprisingly).
Prior to round 10 monkey bombs are three times as likely to appear as any other weapon, but drops back down to the same as all other weapons as soon as at least one player has received them. After round 10 they are 5x as likely to appear but again drop down once somebody receives them. This does not apply to any other wonder equipment at all (gersches, dolls, QEDs, lil arnies, emps, G strikes).
On black ops 2 the ray gun mark 2 has a flat 1% chance of appearing always, and all other weapons split the remaining 99% evenly. This is not true on buried, where the ray gun mark 2 does have equal odds to all other weapons. On black ops 3 the ray gun mark 2 has equal odds. On both bo2 and bo3 the player cannot receive the ray gun or ray gun mark 2 while holding the opposite version, and on all bo2 maps except buried the ray gun mark 2 is a player exclusive weapon.
The teddy bear perma perk has a 60% chance of giving you a random weapon from the “teddy bear perma perk” list of weapons, and a 40% chance of giving you a completely random weapon (which can include weapons from the teddy bear perma perk too). The teddy bear perma perk generally includes weapons most people consider to be better, but on tranzit and die rise does not include the ray gun mark 2. Within these lists all weapons have equal odds.
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Tdlr: On Black ops 1, 2, and 3 almost every single weapon in the box has identical odds of appearing regardless of weapon class/wonder weapon status. To find the odds, count the number of weapons in the box on a given map, remove weapons you are currently holding, remove player exclusive weapons (wonder weapons, crossbow, ballistic knife, and dolls on cotd only), and the odds are 1 divided by that number.
The exceptions are as follows:
The Wunderwaffe (Bo1 only) has a 15% chance of appearing anytime from round 5-10, then a 20% chance of appearing after round 10. This makes the wunderwaffe the most common weapon in the box (surprisingly).
Prior to round 10 monkey bombs are three times as likely to appear as any other weapon, but drops back down to the same as all other weapons as soon as at least one player has received them. After round 10 they are 5x as likely to appear but again drop down once somebody receives them. This does not apply to any other wonder equipment at all (gersches, dolls, QEDs, lil arnies, emps, G strikes).
On black ops 2 the ray gun mark 2 has a flat 1% chance of appearing always, and all other weapons split the remaining 99% evenly. This is not true on buried, where the ray gun mark 2 does have equal odds to all other weapons. On black ops 3 the ray gun mark 2 has equal odds. On both bo2 and bo3 the player cannot receive the ray gun or ray gun mark 2 while holding the opposite version, and on all bo2 maps except buried the ray gun mark 2 is a player exclusive weapon.
The teddy bear perma perk has a 60% chance of giving you a random weapon from the “teddy bear perma perk” list of weapons, and a 40% chance of giving you a completely random weapon (which can include weapons from the teddy bear perma perk too). The teddy bear perma perk generally includes weapons most people consider to be better, but on tranzit and die rise does not include the ray gun mark 2. Within these lists all weapons have equal odds.